Overview
- Five-year credit default swaps rose to about 1.25 percentage points in November, the highest since 2021, while Oracle’s bonds lagged high-grade benchmarks.
- Morgan Stanley warned protection costs could surpass 1.5 percentage points soon and approach 2 percentage points in 2026 without financing clarity, and it closed the bond leg of its prior basis trade while keeping CDS protection.
- Oracle has tapped $18 billion in bonds and is linked to roughly $56 billion in data-center financing, including an $18 billion New Mexico project loan and a $38 billion package for Texas and Wisconsin sites tied to Vantage Data Centers.
- Banks involved in the construction loans are actively hedging exposure, a key driver of heavier CDS trading and higher protection costs that the firm expects to persist.
- Oracle declined to comment as investors await the Dec. 15 fiscal Q2 call for details on funding plans for its AI infrastructure buildout.