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Opposition Holds Majority as Israel's Coalition Talks Stall

President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations this week to decide who gets the mandate to try to form a government and the outcome will turn on Arab‑party support, Eisenkot’s conditions and pending security probes.

Overview

  • The Oct. 27 parliamentary vote left Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 seats and an opposition grouping plus Arab‑led parties with 67 seats, creating an arithmetic majority that has not coalesced into a practicable coalition.
  • Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has set binding conditions for partners — a state inquiry into Oct. 7 failures, universal national or military service, repeal of judicial overhaul laws and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist group — that shape who will join or back his bid for power.
  • Arab parties, led by the Joint List and Ra’am with a combined 19 seats, say they can back an alternative government from outside without joining the cabinet, but some Zionist opposition parties have ruled out relying on formal Arab participation.
  • President Herzog will receive certified results and start consultations on Nov. 4, after which a chosen lawmaker gets 28 days, plus a 14‑day extension, to form a government; opposition moves to replace the Knesset speaker show they are already using parliamentary tactics to build leverage.
  • The situation is further clouded by Shin Bet and police probes into alleged irregularities and foreign‑linked funding in Arab communities and by public pressure from large pro‑unity and counterprotest rallies, all of which could affect negotiations or push Israel toward another election.