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OpenAI’s AMD Deal Recasts AI-Compute Race as Wall Street Re-Rates Chipmakers

Fresh analyst upgrades follow OpenAI’s multi‑year AMD agreement that schedules an initial 1 gigawatt deployment for late 2026.

Overview

  • OpenAI agreed to deploy up to 6 GW of AMD accelerators with performance‑linked warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, with the first 1 GW slated to come online in the second half of 2026.
  • Analysts raised AMD targets after the deal, including Barclays to $300, TD Cowen to $270, and Bank of America to $250, citing multi‑year revenue potential that some estimates place as high as tens of billions of dollars.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its Nvidia target to $300 after meetings with executives, highlighting strong generative‑AI demand, sold‑out GPUs, and closer NVIDIA‑OpenAI alignment to reduce margin stacking.
  • Nvidia remains the dominant GPU supplier with an estimated 92% data‑center share and record fiscal Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, including $41.1 billion from data centers.
  • Operational and economic pressures persist, with a report of Chinese customs scrutiny of Nvidia AI chips and new analysis suggesting Oracle’s Nvidia‑based AI cloud could face thinner near‑term margins as large projects scale.