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Open Enrollment Begins With Steep Premium Hikes as Subsidy Extension Stalls

The potential lapse of expanded ACA tax credits threatens to push costs far higher for millions.

Overview

  • ACA marketplace premiums for 2026 are projected to jump about 26% on average, with HealthCare.gov states seeing roughly 30% increases tied to higher drug, hospital and utilization costs.
  • Employer-sponsored health plans are forecast to rise about 9% in 2026, the sharpest increase since the late 2000s, according to Mercer.
  • Open enrollment is underway and HealthCare.gov remains operational during the shutdown, with most states setting Dec. 15 as the cutoff for Jan. 1 coverage and Jan. 15 as the final deadline.
  • If the enhanced subsidies expire at year’s end, many subsidized enrollees could face average out-of-pocket premium increases of around 114%, and CBO projects about 3.8 million more people would go uninsured each year on average.
  • Younger adults and gig workers could be priced out without the enhanced credits, and experts urge shoppers to compare plans closely now, while policy analysts note Congress could still extend subsidies and prompt system updates and outreach.