Overview

• Eight core members approved the October increase, beginning the staged reversal of roughly 1.65–1.66 million barrels per day of previously withheld supply.
• OPEC+ said it will keep full flexibility to pause or reverse the plan and will meet again on October 5 to reassess conditions.
• Analysts say the real supply boost could be smaller than quotas because most members are near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the main sources of extra barrels.
• Oil fell sharply on Friday on reports of faster hikes and a weak U.S. jobs reading, then edged higher in early Monday trading after the formal decision, with Brent near $65.50.
• The move extends a 2025 shift toward higher volumes after about 2.2–2.5 million bpd in earlier restorations, raising surplus risk into late 2025 and 2026 even as the group targets market share.