Overview

• OPEC+ approved a 137,000 bpd increase from October, a smaller step than recent months that begins reversing the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts from April 2023.
• Saudi Aramco lowered October official selling prices to Asia by about $1 a barrel, a move traders read as a sign of softer demand that tempered gains.
• Brent hovered near $66–$67 and WTI around $63 after the decision, with prices buoyed by the smaller-than-expected hike and short-term physical support in Asia.
• Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, the IEA and HSBC flagged growing oversupply risks into 2026, with forecasts pointing to Brent in the mid‑$50s if inventories build as OPEC+ restores barrels.
• Potential new curbs on Russian oil—following Israel’s strike in Qatar and President Trump’s push for EU tariffs on buyers of Russian crude—offer upside risk, even as U.S. producers cut jobs and capex amid weaker prices.