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3mo ago

OPEC+ Set to Greenlight Fourth Straight Output Hike at July Meeting

Endorsing live quota setting in Vienna underscores OPEC+’s push to reclaim market share following the evaporation of Iran–Israel risk, resulting in a slide in Brent to roughly $67 a barrel.

A pumpjack operates at the Vermilion Energy site in Trigueres, France, June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier
An oil tanker unloads crude oil at a crude oil terminal in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China July 4, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/ File Photo
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Overview

  • Russia’s deputy prime minister confirmed that OPEC+ will decide August production on the spot at its July 6 meeting, eliminating pre-negotiations.
  • The group is poised to approve a fourth consecutive monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day, reversing a total of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts since April.
  • Brent crude has stabilized near $67 per barrel after President Trump announced a ceasefire in the Iran–Israel conflict and the associated risk premium evaporated.
  • Saudi Arabia lifted June exports by 441,000 bpd to 6.36 million bpd in a bid to regain market share and China’s independent refineries ran a record 1.8 million bpd of Iranian crude early in June.
  • Morgan Stanley forecasts that robust non-OPEC supply growth and ongoing OPEC+ hikes could push Brent toward $60 per barrel by early next year with an expected 1.3 million bpd surplus in 2026.