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OPEC+ Set to Approve Fourth 411,000 bpd Hike as Tariff Deadline Looms

U.S. crude stocks surged to a 3.8 million-barrel build with a 90-day tariff pause set to expire on July 9

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/ File Photo
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/ File Photo
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OPEC+ is looking to expand its market share against the backdrop of growing supplies from other producers like the United States.

Overview

  • Delegates from OPEC+ are expected to ratify another 411,000 barrels per day increase for August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly hike
  • Barclays warns that headline output targets continue to outpace actual flows due to compliance gaps and compensation cuts by some members
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 3.8 million-barrel rise in domestic crude inventories last week, highlighting softening demand
  • Nearly half of oil industry executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed anticipate drilling fewer wells in 2025, citing policy volatility and higher input costs
  • Axios reported U.S. plans to resume nuclear talks with Iran, a step that could eventually ease sanctions and unlock additional Iranian exports