Overview
- Opec+ announced a further 188,000 barrels per day quota increase for August, matching an identical uplift it approved for July.
- The move reflects brighter shipping conditions after a mid‑June framework agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and helped restore tanker flows.
- Bloomberg cited a U.S. official saying more than ten million barrels per day may now be transiting the strait, which pushed prices back toward pre‑conflict levels.
- Analysts warn that physical production and port and tanker capacity lag official quotas, so actual output is likely still below Opec+ targets and will rise only gradually this summer.
- Consultants forecast a risk of surplus next year if the ramp‑up continues, a shift that could lower prices, squeeze producing nations' export revenues, and ease fuel costs for consumers.