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OPEC Projects Balanced Oil Market in 2026 After OPEC+ Output Increases

The outlook reflects higher OPEC+ targets with a pause signaled for early 2026.

Overview

  • OPEC's November report says global oil supply is expected to match demand in 2026.
  • OPEC+ output fell by 73,000 barrels per day in October to 43.02 million bpd, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.
  • A Reuters calculation based on OPEC figures implies a marginal 20,000 bpd surplus next year if October production levels persist.
  • OPEC's monthly projections have shifted from a 700,000 bpd shortfall in September to a 50,000 bpd deficit last month.
  • OPEC said the world economy’s growth trend remained firm.