Overview

• Eight core OPEC+ producers will meet online on Oct. 5 to decide November allocations, with a proposal for at least a 137,000 bpd hike, according to sources familiar with the talks.
• Since April, the group has raised quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd as it shifts from cuts to a phased restoration aimed at rebuilding market share.
• Actual additions have lagged targets, with roughly 75% of pledged volumes delivered and an estimated 500,000 bpd shortfall centered in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq.
• October began the unwind of a 1.65 million bpd layer of curbs with a 137,000 bpd step after a separate 2.2 million bpd layer was fully restored by end-September.
• Brent moved back above $70 this week after strikes on Russian energy infrastructure disrupted supply, highlighting continued price sensitivity to outages.