Overview
- Delegates and analyst sources say the Voluntary Eight will seek approval at a 1600 GMT virtual meeting to add roughly 137,000 bpd to December targets, keeping the cautious monthly unwind.
- Since April, the core group has restored about 2.7 million bpd, with the pace of additions slowing in October and November after larger earlier increases.
- Market watchers warn the balance is loosening, with the IEA forecasting a surplus of more than 3 million bpd this quarter and trading houses pointing to rising barrels parked on tankers.
- U.S. and U.K. measures on Rosneft and Lukoil cloud Russia’s ability to lift output, though the ultimate impact depends on how strictly sanctions are enforced.
- Actual supply gains have frequently lagged quotas as some members compensate for earlier overproduction or face capacity limits, and one source said a pause in hikes remains possible.