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OPEC+ Poised for Fourth Consecutive Production Hike as U.S.–Iran and Economic Signals Shape Oil Markets

Futures prices are steady near multiweek lows ahead of next week’s OPEC+ meeting.

A pump jack operates near a gas turbine power plant in the Permian Basin oil field outside of Odessa, Texas, U.S. February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/ File Photo
A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/ File Photo
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Overview

  • OPEC+ delegates told Reuters they plan a fourth straight 411,000 barrels-per-day output increase in August to restore market share after two years of cuts.
  • Brent crude futures held near $69 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded around $67 as traders weighed incoming supply gains against demand indicators.
  • Washington imposed fresh sanctions on an Iranian oil-smuggling network and a Hezbollah-affiliated bank, while also planning to resume nuclear talks with Tehran via an envoy meeting in Oslo next week.
  • U.S. firms added 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bolstering demand forecasts just days before a 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9.
  • A wildfire near Fort McMurray underscored vulnerabilities in Canadian oil sands output during the peak of wildfire season.