OPEC+ Output Hike and US Tariffs Shake Oil Market Stability

Increased production from OPEC+ and escalating US-China trade tensions are driving oil price volatility and dampening demand forecasts.

OPEC+ has announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, signaling a strategic policy shift by key members like Saudi Arabia.
US President Trump's aggressive tariffs on Chinese imports, now at 145%, have heightened market uncertainty and contributed to declining oil prices.
Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have lowered oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing recession risks and oversupply concerns.
OPEC has revised its oil demand growth projections downward for 2025 and 2026, reflecting weaker global economic growth influenced by trade tensions.
Low oil prices are pressuring US shale producers, particularly in the Permian Basin, where corporate breakeven costs are estimated at $62.50 per barrel.