Overview

• Brazil’s total liquids production fell by 68,000 bpd in August to 4.7 million bpd, with crude output down by the same amount to 3.9 million bpd.
• OPEC left its Brazil supply forecasts unchanged, projecting growth of about 230,000 bpd in 2025 to an average of 4.4 million bpd and a further 160,000 bpd in 2026 to 4.5 million bpd.
• The report identifies Brazil alongside the United States, Canada, and Argentina as key non-OPEC contributors to global liquids supply growth in 2025 and 2026.
• OPEC maintained Brazil’s macro projections, keeping GDP growth at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 and inflation around 5% in 2025.
• Referencing Brazil’s central bank minutes, OPEC expects the Selic rate to be held at least through the end of the first half of 2026 and flags downside risks from elevated U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump and from Brazil’s fiscal deficit.