Overview
- OPEC+ approved a 137,000 barrels per day increase for December and said it will pause further hikes in January, February and March 2026 due to seasonality, according to its statement.
- Brent traded near $64–$65 a barrel with prices first edging up then stabilizing or slipping as traders weighed oversupply risks, soft Asian demand and record U.S. output of 13.8 million bpd.
- Russia pushed for the pause because sanctions could limit its ability to raise exports, sources told Reuters, with added uncertainty from a Ukrainian drone strike on the Tuapse oil port.
- Since April, the group has raised targets by roughly 2.7–2.9 million bpd, though actual additions have often lagged quotas, and about 1.2 million bpd from the current tranche remains to be restored.
- Morgan Stanley nudged its 2026 Brent forecast to $60 after the decision, while many forecasters still flag a potential surplus next year despite OPEC+ signaling caution.