Overview
- OPEC+ core members met on Oct. 4 and agreed to keep November production targets unchanged.
- Most planned output increases for 2026 remain unrealized because Gulf producers are exporting at roughly 60 to 80 percent of normal levels due to the conflict.
- The group still has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts in place that cover most members.
- The seven core OPEC+ members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but roughly 5 million bpd below pre‑war February levels.
- The war has delayed the routine capacity review for 2027 quotas, making substantive quota redistribution unlikely before 2027 and keeping markets sensitive to OPEC+'s monthly meetings.