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5h ago

OPEC Keeps Demand Forecasts as OPEC+ Supply Gains Shrink 2026 Deficit

A Reuters reading of OPEC’s October report shows the group’s restored supply has shrunk the projected 2026 shortfall to a marginal 50,000 barrels per day.

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28 , 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

Overview

  • OPEC left its oil demand growth outlook unchanged at 1.3 million bpd for 2025 and 1.4 million bpd for 2026, projecting 105.1 million bpd and 106.5 million bpd respectively.
  • OPEC+ raised crude production by 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd as the alliance continued unwinding earlier cuts.
  • Based on the report and a Reuters calculation, the implied 2026 market deficit narrows to about 50,000 bpd if OPEC+ maintains September’s output rate, down from 700,000 bpd previously.
  • OPEC maintained its view that non‑OPEC+ supply will grow by 0.8 million bpd in 2025 and 0.6 million bpd in 2026, led by the United States, Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
  • OPEC said the world economy is maintaining a solid growth trend, though the added OPEC+ barrels have raised surplus concerns that have weighed on prices this year.