Overview
- OPEC+ ministers agreed to hold December production at September levels, a decision confirmed in meetings held over the weekend that extends a three‑month freeze on official quotas.
- Brent has traded in a roughly $110–$118 per barrel range in recent sessions as reports of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran have pulled prices down and tanker incidents have pushed them back up.
- Major banks revised forecasts upward this week, with Goldman Sachs raising near‑term estimates and warning of a high‑stress scenario in which Brent could reach about $140 per barrel in 2027 if Gulf production stays curtailed.
- UKMTO and other agencies recorded new attacks and ship incidents around the Strait of Hormuz, keeping transport routes risky and sustaining a premium on futures that outpaces physical market improvements.
- Consumers feel the impact differently: Spain saw pump prices fall at the start of November, while U.S. motorists and voters face record high gasoline and diesel costs that have become a political liability ahead of the midterms, and refiners warn diesel supplies remain tight for winter.