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OPEC+ Keeps 2026 Output Quotas, Launches Audited Capacity Plan for 2027

The move reflects caution over a projected 2026 surplus, shifting future quotas to baselines verified by independent reviews.

Overview

  • OPEC+ reaffirmed group-wide production levels through December 31, 2026, leaving about 3.24 million barrels per day of cuts in place after restoring roughly 2.9 million bpd since April.
  • Members approved a Maximum Sustainable Capacity assessment to set 2027 baselines, with audits running mainly from January to September 2026 and DeGolyer & MacNaughton handling most reviews, while sanctioned producers use alternative arrangements.
  • A core group of eight producers reconfirmed a pause on further output increases for January–March 2026, with that subset scheduled to meet again on January 4.
  • Oversight was strengthened as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was mandated to meet every two months to track market conditions, conformity and compensation, with authority for additional sessions.
  • Oil prices edged higher near $63 Brent and $59 WTI as traders weighed the OPEC+ stance alongside supply risks from Ukrainian strikes on the CPC Black Sea terminal and rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions.