OPEC+ Holds Q1 Pause as Analysts Forecast a Modest 2026 Output Rebound

Overview

• Eight leading members have frozen further increases for January–March 2026, keeping production limits at December 2025 levels.
• Analysts surveyed by Russian outlets project OPEC+ supply growth of roughly 0.5–1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, often centering near 1 million.
• An online meeting on January 4 will set the February plan, and experts say ending the pause would require sharp inventory draws or a price spike driven by real supply outages.
• The countries coordinating these voluntary adjustments are Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
• Several experts cite fundamentals that lean toward stable or softer prices, and some argue the alliance could sustain a low‑price stance into 2027.