Overview
- OPEC+ confirmed at its Sunday meeting that it will keep official output policy unchanged for October while members prepare for deeper quota talks.
- The alliance finished a phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels-per-day voluntary cut with a September supply increase that restored those withheld barrels.
- A separate set of cuts of about 2 million bpd introduced in 2022 remains in force through December 31, 2026, so no large new supply is planned this quarter.
- A capacity review due by the end of September will update each member’s production baseline and is expected to drive tense negotiations over 2027 quotas.
- Ongoing disruption from the Iran war has reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping actual OPEC+ output below targets and leaving markets sensitive to further supply shocks.