OPEC Holds 2026 Demand Outlook as EIA Sees Higher U.S. Output, Softer Prices

Overview

• OPEC kept its 2026 global oil demand growth estimate at about 1.38 million barrels per day, projecting total demand near 106.52 million b/d.
• The group left its 2026 non‑OPEC+ supply view unchanged at an average 54.78 million b/d, with growth led by Brazil, Canada, the United States and Argentina.
• The U.S. EIA raised its U.S. oil output forecast to 13.59 million b/d in 2026 and 13.25 million b/d in 2027, and lifted its 2026 Brent price outlook to $55.87 per barrel.
• EIA expects prices to ease in 2026 as global production outpaces demand, with stock builds persisting into 2027.
• OPEC+ produced 784,000 b/d below its December plan; the eight core members fell 265,000 b/d short, with Russia 270,000 b/d under quota as Kazakhstan exceeded by 84,000 b/d and Oman by 4,000 b/d.