Overview

• OPEC+ said eight energy ministers approved a 137,000 b/d quota increase for October compared with September levels, surprising markets.
• The group reiterated that up to 1.65 million b/d could be restored progressively depending on conditions, with no timetable provided.
• Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon said actual output gains will likely be smaller due to capacity constraints and the bloc’s compensation mechanism.
• Brent settled a little above $65 per barrel before the decision, and some analysts see the move adding to downward pressure on prices.
• Competition from rising non-OPEC supply and U.S. policy pressure on Russian flows, including August tariffs and calls to curb purchases, could test group cohesion.