Overview

• OPEC+ approved a 548,000 bpd increase for August—the largest monthly boost since voluntary cuts began—and is on track to add 550,000 bpd in September to fully unwind its 2.2 million bpd of prior reductions
• Brent and WTI have held in the mid-$60 range and briefly neared two-week highs as tight physical markets and peak summer demand absorb the extra barrels
• Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have revived a Middle East supply-risk premium by pushing up freight and insurance costs for crude tankers
• President Trump’s announcement of steep US tariffs starting August 1 has injected fresh uncertainty into global oil demand forecasts
• Major banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast Brent at $66.32 and WTI at $63.03 per barrel for 2025, balancing looming oversupply against remaining market tightness