Overview

• The Voluntary Eight subgroup formally approved a 547,000 barrels per day production boost for September, undoing the full 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts made in 2023.
• The increase incorporates an extra phased-in allowance for the United Arab Emirates and follows consecutive output hikes totaling 1.5 million bpd since April.
• Brent crude prices hovered near $70 a barrel after falling to a one-week low on concerns that the additional supply could overwhelm the market.
• ING’s Warren Patterson and other analysts caution that the rapid supply restoration risks creating a global surplus starting in the fourth quarter.
• The Voluntary Eight is scheduled to meet again on September 7 to consider whether to reinstate up to 1.65 million bpd of remaining cuts based on evolving market conditions.