Overview

• Delegates said the group agreed in principle to add roughly 137,000 barrels per day in October during a Sept. 7 video meeting.
• Sources reported the October hike could land anywhere from about 135,000 bpd to as much as 200,000–350,000 bpd as talks continue.
• An October increase would start unwinding a further 1.65 million bpd of cuts more than a year ahead of the original schedule.
• Oil fell on the reports, with WTI settling below $62 and Brent at $65.50 on Friday, as traders priced in faster supply growth and softer U.S. data.
• Analysts warned of a potential Q4 surplus and noted actual barrels may lag quotas because many members lack spare capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the primary sources of additional supply.