Overview
- Opec+'s core group confirmed on Sunday a further 188,000 barrels‑per‑day production increase for August, repeating the same quota rise applied for July.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up since a mid‑June US‑Iran framework agreement, with a US official cited by Bloomberg saying more than 10 million bpd may now transit the chokepoint.
- Brent crude has fallen back toward pre‑war levels near $72 a barrel, helped by weaker Chinese demand, higher shipments outside the Gulf and coordinated releases from strategic reserves.
- Analysts from UBS, Saxo Bank and Rystad say actual output still likely trails Opec+ quotas and that a slow physical ramp‑up could flip the market into an oversupply next year if demand stays soft.
- Opec+ said it will reassess policy at a meeting on August 2 and kept the planned increases conditional on market developments, leaving room to accelerate, pause or reverse the ramp‑up.