Overview

• Eight energy ministers unexpectedly raised the October quota by 137,000 barrels per day, defying expectations of a pause.
• OPEC+ said as much as 1.65 million barrels per day could be restored progressively depending on market conditions, with no set timeline.
• Since April, the alliance has shifted to regain market share, reintroducing roughly 2.2 million barrels per day already.
• Compensation rules and production limits will likely curb the immediate increase in actual barrels, according to Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon.
• Competition from rising U.S., Canadian, Guyanese and Brazilian output and pressures tied to Russia’s war financing complicate the group’s strategy, with recent U.S. measures targeting flows linked to Russian crude.