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OPEC+ Approves 137,000-Barrel October Hike, Keeps Further Increases Conditional

Major forecasters now warn of a 2026 surplus that could pull Brent into the low $50s.

Overview

  • The Sunday decision delivers a seventh straight monthly increase, with eight producers set to add a combined 137,000 barrels per day from October.
  • OPEC+ said any further return of the remaining 1.65–1.66 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts depends on market conditions and could be reversed.
  • Brent traded around $66 and WTI near $62 after the move, with strong Asian buying and below‑average OECD inventories helping steady near‑term prices.
  • Goldman Sachs, the IEA and S&P Global project a sizable surplus into 2026, with some outlooks pointing to Brent below $60 by year‑end or in the low‑$50s next year.
  • Lower prices have prompted U.S. layoffs, capital spending cuts and declines in rig and frac counts, raising the risk that domestic output growth will slow.