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OPEC+ Approves 137,000-Barrel December Hike, Sets Q1 2026 Pause

The alliance adopts a cautious stance to guard against a potential surplus driven by uncertain Russian supply under new sanctions.

Overview

  • The December addition is drawn from the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 as part of a gradual unwinding.
  • The decision was taken by the eight participating producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria — after a virtual meeting.
  • OPEC+ has restored roughly 2.7–2.9 million barrels per day since April, slowing the pace as the IEA warns supplies could exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter.
  • New U.S. and U.K. measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil create uncertainty over Russia’s capacity to add barrels, complicating supply planning.
  • The group will pause further increments in January through March 2026 due to seasonality and says it can return part or all of the 1.65 million-barrel tranche depending on market conditions, with monthly reviews and a meeting set for November 30.