Overview

• In its 2025 outlook released July 10, OPEC raised its 2050 demand forecast to 123 million barrels per day, an 18.6% increase from 2024, and asserted no peak is in sight.
• The IEA expects demand growth of just 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, marking the weakest annual increase since 2009 outside the Covid year.
• The IEA projects that global oil consumption will peak by 2029 and then experience a slight decline in 2030.
• OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais labeled rapid oil and gas phase-out scenarios as unrealistic and a fantasy.
• Non-OECD markets, led by India, are forecast to drive much of the growth that keeps oil and gas at 54% of the energy mix in 2050 even as coal declines and renewables expand.