Overview

• Members agreed in principle to add 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing the reversal of the 2.2 million bpd cutback from 2023.
• The increase incorporates an extra allowance for the United Arab Emirates as part of coordinated monthly hikes by the Voluntary Eight since April.
• Saudi Arabia and Russia have driven successive output boosts to shift the alliance’s strategy from supporting prices to reclaiming market share.
• Market analysts warn the stepped-up supply could trigger a global oil surplus from October and expect OPEC+ to consider pausing further increases after September.
• The decision comes against U.S. threats of secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers and ongoing geopolitical risks tied to the Ukraine conflict.