Overview
- The seven principal OPEC+ managers agreed Sunday to raise their production target by 188,000 barrels per day from August 1, continuing the month‑by‑month rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts set in April 2023.
- OPEC+ said it will remain flexible and can pause, speed up or reverse the restorations and scheduled a meeting on August 2 to review market balance, compliance and any further adjustments.
- Global oil futures fell after the announcement as traders priced in higher supply, and major banks cut price forecasts with Citi projecting Brent near $60–$65 per barrel by year‑end.
- Analysts warn the extra quota, the UAE’s decision to produce at full capacity and weak Chinese imports could push supply ahead of demand and squeeze margins for exporters and high‑cost projects.
- Physical flows face logistical frictions so the new quotas may not immediately reach refiners, which means shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the August 2 review will shape how quickly prices move.