Overview

• OPEC+ approved a 548,000 bpd production increase for August, surpassing the 411,000 bpd hikes of the previous three months.
• The alliance is poised to add about 550,000 bpd in September, completing the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts ahead of schedule.
• Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast Brent and WTI to average in the mid-$60s per barrel for 2025 amid surplus supply and tariff-driven demand uncertainty.
• Analysts at UBS and refiners report that tight physical markets have absorbed the extra barrels from OPEC+’s larger output hikes, preventing steeper price losses.
• Saudi Aramco raised its Arab Light benchmark to a four-month high for Asia as markets brace for the end of the US tariff pause on July 9, a key demand risk factor.