Overview

• Auditor General Shelley Spence reported Ontario will miss its 2030 greenhouse gas target by more than the government has acknowledged, following internal modelling in January that projected a shortfall not disclosed to the public.
• The province’s projections failed to account for the end of the federal consumer carbon tax, changing electric-vehicle mandates, permanent provincial fuel-tax cuts, and the removal of some road tolls that could increase gas-powered driving.
• The report says reductions were likely overstated across transportation, waste, industry, buildings, agriculture, and electricity, with little progress on the 2017 commitment to ban organics from landfills that drive methane emissions.
• The Ministry of the Environment rejected three of four recommendations, agreeing only to strengthen model assumptions, while maintaining no targets beyond 2030 and providing no annual public progress report since 2021.
• Transportation remains the largest source of emissions, and recent car‑friendly decisions such as highway expansion, toll removals, and fuel‑tax freezes are expected to encourage more vehicle use and deepen the gap to the target.