Overview

• ONS revised May–July total earnings growth to 4.8%, up from 4.7%, resetting the key Triple Lock measure.
• Analysts now project the full New State Pension at about £241.30 a week, roughly £12,547 a year, from April 2026.
• The full Basic State Pension is projected to rise to about £184.90 a week under the same 4.8% increase.
• With August CPI at 3.8% and September CPI due on October 22, earnings currently look most likely to set next year’s uprating.
• The projected annual amount sits just below the £12,570 Personal Allowance, which is frozen until April 2028, raising tax and policy questions ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26.