Overview

• ONS revised May–July total pay growth to 4.8%, making earnings the likely driver of next year’s State Pension uplift under the Triple Lock.
• A 4.8% rise points to about £241.30 a week (£12,547–£12,548 a year) for the full New State Pension and £184.90 (£9,614) for the full Basic State Pension, lifting payments by roughly £575 for around four million newer retirees.
• HMRC’s 51-weeks-at-the-new-rate calculation keeps 2026/27 pension income just below the £12,570 personal allowance, with many pensioners expected to cross the threshold in 2027 if tax bands remain frozen.
• The September CPI figure due on 22 October is the final data input, with the Chancellor scheduled to confirm the uprating at the Autumn Budget on 26 November.
• Pensions experts warn the fiscal cost could prompt ministers to consider tempering the formula, though the government has pledged to retain the Triple Lock for this Parliament.