Overview
- The ONS lifted May–July total wage growth to 4.8%, making earnings the likely Triple Lock driver and pointing to projected weekly rates of £241.30 for the full New State Pension and £184.90 for the full Basic State Pension.
- On an annual basis, that projection equates to about £12,547 for the full New State Pension and roughly £9,614 for the full Basic State Pension from April 2026.
- Because HMRC counts 51 weeks at the new rate and one at the old, the full New State Pension would sit just under the frozen £12,570 personal allowance in 2026/27, pushing more retirees close to the tax threshold.
- The September CPI figure, due October 22, will determine whether earnings or inflation sets the uprating, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves to confirm the decision in the Autumn Budget on November 26.
- Roughly four million people receive the full New State Pension out of around 13 million of State Pension age, and experts warn fiscal pressures could lead to debate over whether the Triple Lock can be maintained unchanged.