Overview

• Average earnings grew 4.7% in May–July, making an April 2026 increase of the full new state pension to about £241.05 a week (£12,534.60 a year) the likely outcome, subject to individual National Insurance records.
• Quilter estimates a 4.7% uprating would add roughly £6.3bn to annual costs, compared with about £5.14bn if the increase matched current inflation at 3.8%.
• The higher payment would sit just £35 below the frozen £12,570 personal allowance, pushing more retirees into income tax through fiscal drag, according to advisers.
• Around 453,000 pensioners living in countries without uprating agreements, including Australia, New Zealand and Canada, are expected to miss the increase.
• Labour ministers say the triple lock will stay this Parliament, even as experts warn of long‑term affordability pressures and float options from tax rises to structural reforms.