Overview
- One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen defeated Labor’s Georgia Tree in Secret Harbour on Saturday, winning the traditionally Labor seat with a large swing and giving One Nation its first lower‑house seat in Western Australia.
- National polling taken after the by‑election shows a sharp rise in One Nation support, with one Newspoll putting the party at roughly 30 percent primary vote and near or ahead of Labor on primary numbers.
- Internal strain has followed the surge after MP David Farley publicly questioned One Nation’s 130,000 net overseas migration target, prompting media reports he might leave the party that Barnaby Joyce has publicly denied.
- Technical rules about net overseas migration complicate public claims because the Australian Bureau of Statistics counts some temporary workers if they stay 12 months in a 16‑month window, and about half of PALM arrivals were on long‑term visas as of June 2026.
- The result has forced major parties to respond with intensified campaigning on immigration, housing and cost‑of‑living issues, and One Nation leaders say they plan to build on the momentum in WA and beyond with a clearer policy push ahead of future elections.