Overview
- A Redbridge/Accent Research survey published in early August put One Nation ahead on the national primary vote at about 31–32 percent, though the poll’s two‑party and respondent‑allocated preference measures produced different outcomes for Labor and the Coalition.
- One Nation officially named Warren Pickering as its Victorian leader and unveiled eight upper‑house candidates while saying it will run in every seat and delay releasing full candidate lists and core state policies until the end of August.
- The party barred the ABC, The Age and The Guardian from its announcement event and hosted a private fundraiser in Hawthorn East that drew large protests and a heavy police presence, with Victoria Police urging peaceful protest.
- How preferences flow will decide seat outcomes because Australia’s voting system distributes lower‑order votes to major candidates; the Redbridge poll showed respondent‑allocated preferences could give Labor a 53–47 edge in one measure while another preference contest put the Coalition ahead 52–48.
- One Nation’s Victorian push builds on its small foothold in state parliament and recent national organisation changes, and it could reshape voter choices in regional areas where surveys already show elevated One Nation support and widespread frustration with major parties.