Overview
- Bank of America Institute estimates roughly 24% of households are spending more than 95% of income on essentials such as housing, groceries, gas, child care and utilities.
- The institute defines paycheck-to-paycheck status by outlays exceeding 95% of income on necessities using internal transaction data rather than survey responses.
- Nearly 30% of lower-income households meet this threshold, up from 27% in 2023, while high-income households have seen far fewer budget pressures.
- Wage growth has diverged, with after-tax income up about 1% for lower-income consumers, 2% for middle earners and 4% for high-income households, widening affordability gaps.
- Stress signals are mounting, including a record 6.65% share of subprime auto loans 60 days past due in October and a Goldman Sachs estimate of a 20%–25% chance of a notable unemployment uptick in the next six months.