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yesterday

One Big Beautiful Bill Act Accelerates Social Security Trust Fund Depletion

Social Security’s chief actuary found the law accelerates trust fund depletion, heightening the risk of automatic benefit cuts without congressional action.

Stock image/file photo: A Social Security card with U.S. Dollars.
In this photo illustration, a Social Security card sits alongside checks from the U.S. Treasury on October 14, 2021 in Washington, DC.
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The future of Social Security is uncertain.

Overview

  • The SSA’s Office of the Chief Actuary projects combined OASI/DI insolvency will move from the third quarter of 2034 to the first quarter of 2034 under the new law.
  • Standalone OASI trust fund depletion is now forecast to shift from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032.
  • The law is estimated to raise net OASDI program costs by $168.6 billion through 2034 and worsen the 75-year actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll.
  • Expanded senior deductions and lower income tax rates will reduce revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits for all years beginning in 2025.
  • Without legislative intervention, beneficiaries could face automatic benefit cuts of roughly 23–24 percent at insolvency, affecting more than 60 million Americans.