Overview

• Norwegians vote Monday with surveys showing Labour near 27%, the Progress Party around 21–22% and Høyre in the mid‑teens, leaving the outcome open.
• The Progress Party now fronts the right bloc, giving Sylvi Listhaug a potential path to the premiership, though Erna Solberg says a conservative government would be led by her.
• Several minor parties hover around the 4% cutoff for leveling seats, a factor that could tip parliamentary arithmetic and shape coalition options.
• Labour’s late upswing is tied to a post‑January reshuffle and the return of Jens Stoltenberg as finance minister, bolstering the party’s image of steadiness.
• Norway’s cross‑party political culture leaves the Progress Party less isolated than far‑right groups elsewhere, even as a recent Oslo killing under terror investigation has heightened security concerns.