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On Eve of COP30, UN Warns 1.5°C Will Be Overshot as Renewables Pass Coal

UN gap estimates show only a 10% emissions decline by 2035.

Overview

  • Talks in Belém begin with António Guterres cautioning that breaching 1.5°C in the early 2030s is unavoidable without a rapid scale‑up in action.
  • Energy analysts report renewables became the largest power source in 2025, with wind and solar exceeding demand growth and coal output edging lower.
  • Scientific records show a sharp temperature jump since 2015 and escalating extremes, alongside reports of a tipping signal with widespread coral reef decline.
  • Progress in clean technology has lowered projected end‑century warming to around 2.8°C, yet a UN assessment says current pledges miss Paris‑level cuts by a wide margin.
  • Political headwinds weigh on the talks as the United States under President Trump rolls back clean‑energy incentives and advances fossil fuel expansion.