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On Eve of COP30, EU Races to Seal 2040 Climate Target as UN Warns 1.5°C Breach Likely

Fresh UN assessments projecting 2.3–2.5°C warming under current plans heighten scrutiny of weaker pledges, carbon-credit loopholes and financing gaps.

Overview

  • EU environment ministers meet to lock in a legally binding 90% emissions cut by 2040, with disputes over using international carbon credits ranging from the Commission’s 3% cap to calls for 5%–10%.
  • Talks also aim to finalize the EU’s 2035 contribution under Paris, with a previously floated range of 66.25%–72.5% below 1990 requiring unanimity and failure seen as damaging ahead of Belém.
  • UNEP’s 2025 Emissions Gap report says global emissions rose to 57.7 Gt CO2e in 2024 and current pledges point to 2.3–2.5°C of warming this century, with a likely temporary overshoot of 1.5°C within a decade.
  • The UNFCCC’s new NDC synthesis projects, for the first time, a roughly 10% global emissions decline by 2035 versus 1990 based on submitted plans, still far short of the ~60% cut scientists say is needed for 1.5°C.
  • Argentina unveiled a weaker updated NDC lifting its 2030/2035 net-emissions ceiling to 375 MtCO2e, framing it as achievable and tied to carbon-market participation, as Brazil readies to host COP30 in the Amazon.