Overview

• Bayrou will seek confidence at 3 p.m. Monday with results expected around 7 p.m., but the left and the far right have pledged to vote no.
• Les Républicains are split, with group leader Laurent Wauquiez granting deputies freedom of vote despite calls from party chief Bruno Retailleau to back Bayrou.
• If confidence is refused, the prime minister must submit the government’s resignation to the president under Article 49.1.
• Macron is consulting on a replacement without a decision yet, with names circulating including Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Catherine Vautrin, Eric Lombard, Xavier Bertrand and possibly Jean‑Yves Le Drian.
• Street actions are slated for Sept. 10 and a union mobilization for Sept. 18, and Fitch may review France’s rating this week as polls show strong support for either Macron’s resignation or new elections, with RN pushing dissolution and LFI preparing a destitution motion.