Overview

• Bayrou will ask deputies for confidence on Monday at 3 p.m., with a result expected around 7 p.m., defending a roughly €44 billion savings plan for 2026.
• Major opposition groups from LFI to RN say they will vote against; LR is split as Laurent Wauquiez grants a free vote and predicts many will back Bayrou, while party chief Bruno Retailleau rejects any path that installs a Socialist at Matignon.
• Macron has not decided on a successor and is exploring centrist and centre‑right profiles, with names reported to include Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, Catherine Vautrin, Eric Lombard, Xavier Bertrand and, reportedly under renewed pressure, Jean‑Yves Le Drian.
• Pressure is set to rise with a grassroots “Bloquons tout” day on September 10 and a union mobilization on September 18, alongside market concerns including a potential Fitch review later in the week.
• Polling reported by media outlets indicates a majority of respondents favor Macron’s resignation or new elections if the government falls, as RN pushes for dissolution and LFI prepares a presidential destitution motion.