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On-Chain Study Finds 70% of Polymarket Addresses Lost Money as Tiny Elite Captured Most Gains

A realized P&L read through Dec. 28 points to information asymmetry that produces loss patterns familiar from retail CFD markets.

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70% of prediction market traders are capital donors, matching cfd losses

Overview

  • Data from defioasis.eth covering roughly 1.7 million addresses shows about 70% with realized losses and about 30% with realized profits.
  • Fewer than 0.04% of addresses captured over 70% of all realized profits, collectively about $3.7 billion.
  • Among profitable participants, 24.56% earned only $0–$1,000, contributing just 0.86% of total realized profits, while earning more than $1,000 places an address in roughly the top 4.9%.
  • On the loss side, more than 1.1 million addresses (about 63.5%) realized losses between $0 and $1,000, with reports indicating over 140—up to 149—addresses lost more than $1 million each.
  • The analysis calculates realized P&L from sales and redemptions minus purchases, excludes unrealized positions, and carries limits such as address-level aggregation that may not map cleanly to unique users.